Thriving in complexity

Thriving in complexity

Embrace uncertainty to explore your options

Efficient decision models for the green transition

Efficient decision models for the green transition

Life cycle analyses for the full value chain

Strategy

Strategy

Navigating uncertainty in strategic decision-making

We love models

We love models

Because they help solve real-life problems

Thriving in complexity

Thriving in complexity

Embrace uncertainty to explore your options

Efficient decision models for the green transition

Efficient decision models for the green transition

Life cycle analyses for the full value chain

Stochastic modelling of complex projects - Why?

The world is disruptive and many markets are extremely volatile. Efficient decision making is hampered by congestion of issues and overwhelming uncertainty. The result is often decision paralysis which quickly leads to value erosion in a constantly changing business environment.

  • Apply stochastic modelling to dispel the clouds of uncertainty
  • Investigate the range of possible outcomes to understand the impact of uncertainty
  • Implement continuous improvement through successive model refinements to pave the way for informed decision-making
  • We offer a coherent system of modelling software and services for integrated and efficient analysis of possible project outcomes. No more silo based single-point estimates, no more stand-alone qualitative risk matrices, no more narrow-sighted sensitivity studies. We need a wider perspective, taking likely variations into account when estimating future business performance. We help organisations explore alternatives, assess risks, evaluate uncertainties, and make informed decisions through structured, integrated and transparent business case modelling. We want to transform decision processes for complex projects and strategies from silo-based, single-point estimates to integrated models representing the full range of possible outcomes.

    Solutions

    We have developed a blazingly fast application for Monte Carlo simulation. In combination with a set of simple processes and services our data-driven modelling concept can easily be implemented and applied to any type of project or business setup. The modelling and the services are designed for efficient implementation of knowledge-based and data-driven decision modelling based on ranges and probabilities for variable inputs instead of the often-used flawed deterministic "assumptions". In addition to the obvious benefits of understanding the diversity of outcomes, the process itself provides valuable insights into value drivers, dependencies, threats and opportunities. Our services comprise training, modelling support, independent evaluation and validation. We are also able to adapt our software to specific internal or external requests, for instance driven by compliance requirements.

    Our approach has application to a wide variety of industries with different levels of complexity (from simple business cases to entire value chains with sector couplings straddling multiple business interfaces), e.g.,:

    Geothermal EnergyWind PowerPV - PhotovoltaicsCarbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS)Power-to-XElectrolysis and e-fuels for hard-to-abate sectorsConstruction ProjectsLife SciencesLife Cycle Analyses (LCA)Strategic InitiativesPortfolio Analyses and OptimisationM&A ProjectsNGO/Non-profit Initiatives

    Cases

    We are proud to have worked on a variety of critical projects with recognized companies and organizations.

    Aalborg Portland CCS Project

    Aalborg Portland CCS Project

    Aalborg Portland is planning the development of a carbon capture and storage (CCS) plant

    Geothermal Prospect Evaluation Study

    Geothermal Prospect Evaluation Study

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    Welltec Value Proposition Tool

    Welltec Value Proposition Tool

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    Business Partners and Associations

    Factor3
    Stochastic
    WellPerform
    Kairos technology
    CarbonCuts
    Energycluster Denmark
    State of Green
    INNO-CCUS

    Book a free modelling consultation

    We offer introductory modelling consultations to help you understand the benefits of probabilistic modelling and how it can be applied to your business.

    Book Now
    Consultation

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    About

    We are a small dedicated team working passionately to transform the foundation for important decisions from traditional single point estimates to coherent data-driven analysis based on ranges and probabilities of input variables. In spite of being a small team, we cover a wide range of business experience and professional competences, ranging from management of offshore energy assets through business risk management, financial analysis, data science visualization to software architecture, design and coding. Our goal is to build and support a blazingly fast and innovative platform for simulation of business outcomes based on a highly accessible, adaptable and affordable software solution.

    Morten Aagesen

    Morten Aagesen

    Partner / CEO

    Andreas Bloch

    Andreas Bloch

    Partner / CTO

    John Stringer

    John Stringer

    Partner / Math Wizard

    Jens Ole Thomsen

    Jens Ole Thomsen

    Partner / Business Advisor

    Ana Soles

    Ana Soles

    Research Engineering Trainee

    Our values

    Responsiveness, responsiveness, responsiveness, responsiveness: Our tools are designed to solve real problems for real organisations (responding to market needs) We listen to our customers and act on their requirements (responding to client needs) Our software offers blazingly fast calculations and readily available presentations at the tip of your finger (responding to user needs) We seek the optimum balance between the invested modelling efforts and the level of granularity required to solve the problem (responding to the problem at hand ) In our daily work, we strive for an open and respectful collaborative culture, internally and with our clients and business partners. Last, but not least, we feel proud and passionate about what we do: We love models!