Why probabilistic decision-making matters

The world is disruptive and markets are extremely volatile. Efficient decision making is hampered by congestion of issues and overwhelming uncertainty. In many cases, the result is decision paralysis which, in turn, leads to value erosion in a constantly changing business environment. The best way to dispel the clouds of uncertainty is to apply stochastic (or probabilistic) modelling as a foundational building block for the decision-making process. We offer a coherent platform of simulation software and services for efficient analysis of project outcomes. Time has run out for single-point estimates and short- or narrow-sighted sensitivity studies. We can no longer view the future through a zoom lens, we need the wider angle perspective, taking likely variations of essential inputs into account when estimating possible short- and long-term outcomes. With our solutions, we support organisations in exploring project alternatives, evaluating uncertainties, and making informed decisions in a structured and transparent manner. Our vision is to transform decision processes for projects and strategies from silo-based, single-point models to integrated models representing the full range of possible outcomes.

Solutions

We offer simulation software (Blaiser) and services for efficient implementation of knowledge-based and data-driven decision modelling using ranges and probabilities for variable inputs instead of the often-used flawed deterministic "assumptions". In addition to the obvious benefits of understanding the diversity of outcomes, the process itself provides valuable insights into value drivers, dependencies, threats and opportunities. Our services comprise training, modelling support, independent evaluation and validation. We are also able to adapt our software to specific internal or external requests, for instance driven by compliance requirements.

Our approach has application to a wide variety of industries with different levels of complexity (from simple business cases to entire value chains with sector couplings straddling multiple business interfaces):

Business Partners

About

We are a small dedicated team working passionately to transform the foundation for important decisions from traditional single point estimates to coherent data-driven analysis based on ranges and probabilities of input variables. In spite of being a small team, we cover a wide range of business experience and professional competences, ranging from management of offshore energy assets through business risk management, financial analysis, data science visualization to software architecture, design and coding. Our goal is to build and support a blazingly fast and innovative platform for simulation of business outcomes based on a highly accessible, adaptable and affordable software solution.

Morten Aagesen

Partner / CEO

Andreas Bloch

Partner / CTO

John Stringer

Partner / Math Wizard

Jens Ole Thomsen

Partner / Business Advisor

Ana Soles

Research Engineering Trainee

Our values

Responsiveness, responsiveness, responsiveness, responsiveness: Our tools are designed to solve real problems for real organisations (responding to market needs) We listen to our customers and act on their requirements (responding to client needs) Our software offers blazingly fast calculations and readily available presentations at the tip of your finger (responding to user needs) We seek the optimum balance between the invested modelling efforts and the level of granularity required to solve the problem (responding to the problem at hand ) In our daily work, we strive for an open and respectful collaborative culture, internally and with our clients and business partners. Last, but not least, we feel proud and passionate about what we do: We love models!