Training for process owners and end-users

Decision Risk Analytics provides training across the spectrum of practitioners from the architects who design models and the processes around them, the specialists who provide data and execute the modelling processes to the executives who use model results to inform and articulate their decisions.

We have a number of off-the-shelf course, described below. These courses are normally taught in a closed forum, restricted to participants from a single company. This allows discussion of specific processes and practices, as well as the treatment of “live” examples, where teaching can be tailored to your specific needs. Closed courses may be taught at your premises or at the beautiful and well-equipped teaching facilities in our office in Bernstorff Park, north of Copenhagen. Open courses are also available, please contact us for more information.

In addition to the off-the-shelf-courses, our consultants are also willing to design teaching and training courses in a variety of fields related to Monte Carlo simulation and the modelling of uncertainty in support of strategic, portfolio and project management.

Managing uncertainty in complex projects

A one-day Master Class for project managers, project participants and project stakeholders. The course provides a comprehensive tour of the concepts and methods required to master the quantitative integration of risks and uncertainties in project and portfolio decision-making. The full day programme includes examples and hands-on exercises using Monte Carlo simulation techniques.

  • Risk Management in a Business Context
  • Portfolio Decisions
  • Estimation and Uncertainty
  • From Deterministic to Probabilistic Assessment
  • Simulation Workflow, Model and Results
  • Modelling and Aggregation of Discrete Events
  • Business Case and Decision-making
  • Budget – Contingency – Reserves
  • Continuous Improvement – Confidence from Insights

Target audience: Project managers | Project teams | Project boards | Technical specialists
Next course: 6 June 2019 See event details

Applied probability for oil and gas exploration

For full information on this course, please go to the course page.

A two-day course that provides a solid mathematical basis for the quantitative concepts and methods used in assessing uncertainty in oil and gas exploration.

  • Probability fundamentals and representations
  • Resolving uncertainty with data using Bayes’ theorem
  • Choosing uncertainty distributions and parameters
  • Modelling best practice
  • Lookbacks

Target audience: Assurance teams | Portfolio managers and analysts | Exploration managers | Project managers | Technical specialists

Exploration portfolio analysis

The ultimate goal of probabilistic assessment in oil and gas exploration is to select prospects for investment. This course teaches the mathematical analysis required to turn probabilistic subsurface and economic assessment into investment recommendations. The course can be taught as a two-day course including an introduction to the required fundamental probability, or as a one day course for advanced practitioners.

  • Fundamentals of modelling risk and uncertainty (optional first day one of a two-day course)
  • Portfolio representations and portfolio modelling with Monte Carlo analysis
  • Venture modelling (dealing with play dependencies)
  • Managing risk and volatility: risk metrics, utility, efficient frontiers, options analysis
  • Best practice for building decision processes for portfolios

Target audience: Portfolio managers and analysts | Exploration managers | Project managers | Technical specialists

Decision theory and value of information

Building from a set of straightforward, insightful examples, this course teaches how simple quantitative models illuminate the dynamics of a decision, revealing the essential trade-offs and building a clear logical connection between options and objectives. The course can be taught as a two-day course including an introduction to the required fundamental probability, or as a one day course for advanced practitioners.

  • Fundamentals of modelling risk and uncertainty (optional first day one of a two-day course)
  • Decision quality and the principles of modelling decisions under uncertainty
  • Value, present value, objectives, risk metrics, utility
  • Simple decision models with decision trees
  • Simple value of information calculations with binary tests and data
  • Examples illustrating more advanced analyses

Target audience: Project managers | Project portfolio managers | Decision executives | anyone looking for simple tools to improve decisions